The New York Giants are benching two-time Super Bowl winner Eli Manning for… Geno Smith?!?! The surprise demotion will end Manning’s streak of regular season games started at 210 (2nd longest streak in NFL history). The G-Men (2-9) have struggled offensively this season with Manning calling the plays. The team is 31st in the NFL in scoring, averaging 15.6 points per game.

Big Blue was a 6.5-point underdog in Oakland before the switch at quarterback. Initially, there was little line movement when the news broke Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday morning the Giants were 9.5-point dogs against the Raiders thanks to 66% of spread tickets and a whopping 94% of spread dollars on Oakland.

The hate has gone too far, the Giants are undervalued (even with Geno at quarterback).

Let’s put a pin in the quarterback situation (more on Geno to come) and look at the big picture. The Giants were a bad team before benching Eli (31st in points scored, 22nd in points allowed, 28th in DVOA) and had been eliminated from playoff contention. Recreational bettors want no part of the G-Men but being a contrarian gambler means buying low on a team. Big underdogs late in the season that have won less than 25% of their games, like the Giants, offer value.

Trend

Bet horrible teams late in the season.

This Pro System has gone 102-68-4 (60.0%) ATS since 2003. Bettors that wagered $100 on each game would have made a profit of $2,759.

Our Pick

Since Geno Smith entered the league in 2013, only one quarterback has a worse passer rating (minimum of 16 games started) than the Giants new starter. Geno is bad, but we all knew that. What you might not know is that despite his shortcomings he has covered more games than he lost (15-13-2 ATS) and was 6-2-2 ATS when getting 7 or more points. Furthermore, the line movement has not triggered any bet signals at Sports Insights, which means public action is driving the line. Eli is out, Geno is in and the Giants are undervalued.


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