Will the Patriots win the AFC, does Dallas take the Super Bowl, and are the Browns destined for 0-16? Let’s answer these Yes/No NFL prop bets and more.
To determine if a prop bet has value, we compare the current odds at Sportsbook.ag to our projected chance based on 10,000 simulations of the 2016 season.
Patriots win the Super Bowl
- Yes: +300
- No: -450
New England is the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl and the simulations pick as well. The Pats lift the Lombardi Trophy a league-high 30.3% of the time giving value to betting them at +300.
Cowboys win the Super Bowl
- Yes: +400
- No: -650
Just because Bill Belichick is projected to win another title doesn’t mean the Cowboys can’t have value to capture the franchise’s first Super Bowl since 1996. Dallas is the most likely NFC team to get a first round bye (95.0%) and home field advantage (81.6%). Looks like the road to Houston goes through Jerry’s World.
Seahawks win the Super Bowl
- Yes: +650
- No: -1350
Russell Wilson and crew have the third best chance to win the Super Bowl but at +650 odds there isn’t any value betting the Seahawks to win. There also isn’t any value betting they won’t either. Of course that can all change if Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott start playing like the rookies they are.
Patriots win AFC Championship
- Yes: +110
- No: -145
Spoiler alert. If Tom Brady is going to lead the Patriots to the Super Bowl then the team is also highly likely to win the AFC. Sure enough, there is value at +110 betting New England to win the conference title.
Cowboys win NFC Championship
- Yes: +180
- No: -240
You probably already know the answer but I’ll tell you anyways, Dallas has value at +180 to win the NFC Championship. The Cowboys have the best record in football and have won ten straight, no way they blow this, right?
Seahawks win NFC Championship
- Yes: +250
- No: -350
Seattle has a chance to make it to the NFC title game for a third time in four years. However, like last season a better squad is standing in their way of winning the conference championship. Once again, there is no value betting the “Yes” or “No” for the Seahawks.
Sunday Night Football: Seahawks vs. Panthers
There is a Pro System for this game that has gone 162-101 (62%) ATS
Browns finish 2016-17 season winless (0-16)
- Yes: +160
- No. -225
Chance Cleveland loses every game this season:
Week 11 – 24.3%
Week 12 – 36.5%
Week 13 – 49.4%
Here is the good news, the Browns will not lose this week (are on a bye). Yet, Cleveland has no more than a 28% chance of winning any of its remaining games. There is value at +160 to bet that the Factory of Sadness goes 0-16.
Odds and Implied Probabilities for each “Yes” Bet