Giancarlo Stanton is headed to the Big Apple. The Yankees went from +975 to +500 to win the World Series (5Dimes) after trading for the NL MVP. The former-Marlin smashed an MLB-leading 59-dingers in 2017, topping his previous best by 22 home runs. After a career-year, what should fans in the Bronx expect from one of the games top power hitters?
Stanton is one of 29 hitters (counting Aaron Judge who hit 52 homers last season) to go deep 50 or more times in a single season. Since 1920, we have 43 seasons where a player hit 50 or more long balls, not counting Stanton and Judge. Here is how many upper deck shots these players hit on average over the next five seasons.
On average, players hit 55.7 home runs in their big year. The next season, those same batters averaged 42.3 moonshots, that is a 24.1% decrease in production. The drop off continues over the next four seasons.
This is a disturbing trend for the Yanks but there is reason to think Stanton could buck history. According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Yankee Stadium ranked as the third-most favorable park in baseball for right-handed hitters and if you adjust Stanton’s home run total from last season as if he were already wearing Pinstripes the slugger would have hit 73 homers!
Oddsmakers are also high on the bash-brothers posting monster home run totals. The over/under for total homers hit by Stanton and Judge is 104.5 at BetOnline. According to Sporcle, a pair of teammates have hit more than 100 home runs just four times since the 1920s: Roger Maris/Mickey Mantle 1961 Yankees (115 HRs), Barry Bonds/Rich Aurilia 2001 Giants (110 HRs), Babe Ruth/Lou Gehrig 1927 Yankees (107 HRs) and Mark McGwire/Ray Lankford 1998 Cardinals (101 HRs).
Will Stanton (or Judge) hit 50 or more home runs again in a season? History says regression is coming for the big man but a hitter-friendly stadium could keep him at the top of the home run leaderboard.