World Series Value Bets

Boston Red Sox World Series Value Bets

The MLB trade deadline has passed. The top contenders made moves for the stretch run but which teams should you bet to win the World Series? To find out we compared FanGraphs’ World Series odds to the future odds at 5dimes.

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the World Series and compare that to the projected odds that they lift the Commissioner’s Trophy. For example, Chicago is the favorite at +315, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Cubs they would need to win it all 24.1% (which is 100/(315+100)) of the time. The Cubbies are projected to win the World Series 19.3% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +315 odds.

Here are three teams with value.

Boston Red Sox

Current odds: +1200, Implied Probability: 7.7%

Red Sox win the World Series 11.9% of the time

Boston was relatively quiet at the deadline having traded for Drew Pomeranz a few weeks earlier and being unwilling to trade top prospects for rentals. Instead of dealing young talent the club has called up last year’s first round pick Andrew Benintendi to help boost an already best MLB offense (5.5 runs/game). The pitching staff ranks in the top ten in efficiency ­­­and FanGraphs gives the Red Sox the best chance (47.4%) of winning a tight AL East. When all is said and done don’t be surprised if Boston is making another World Series run.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Current odds: +1600, Implied Probability: 5.9%

Dodgers win the World Series 9.6% of the time

The Dodgers added Rich Hill (2.25 ERA) to bolster the rotation and Josh Reddick to take over for Yasiel Puig (demoted to the minors). Both players are expected to have an immediate impact. The biggest addition for the team would simply come from players getting healthy. Los Angeles currently has 12 players on the DL including All-World pitcher Clayton Kershaw. Despite the injuries the Dodgers are just 2 games back of the Giants in the NL West and have a 2.5 game lead in the Wild Card.

Assuming health, the Dodgers are projected to overtake San Francisco for the division crown and have the third best World Series odds in the NL.

Washington Nationals

Current odds: +700, Implied Probability: 12.5%

Nationals win the World Series 12.6% of the time

The Nats addressed one of their biggest needs at the deadline by acquiring closer Mark Melancon from the Pirates. Melancon has favorable numbers compared to Aroldis Chapman (the top closer traded) and will be a big upgrade over incumbent Jonathan Papelbon (4.41 ERA).

Washington has a comfortable lead in the NL East and is 91.2% likely to win the division. The Nationals, top 10 in runs scored, ERA and defensive efficiency, are real contenders to win their first ever World Series.

Below are all the teams with 100/1 or better odds (implied 1% chance of winning the World Series).

TeamOddsImplied ProbabilitiyChance to Win
Chicago Cubs+31524.1%19.3%
San Francisco Giants+65013.3%5.1%
Cleveland Indians+70012.5%11.2%
Washington Nationals+70012.5%12.6%
Texas Rangers+75011.8%7.2%
Toronto Blue Jays+11008.3%7.8%
Boston Red Sox+12007.7%11.9%
Baltimore Orioles+15006.3%3.2%
Los Angeles Dodgers+16005.9%9.6%
Houston Astros+22004.3%3.7%
New York Mets+33002.9%0.9%
Miami Marlins+36002.7%1.5%
Detroit Tigers+38002.6%2.6%
St. Louis Cardinals+40002.4%2.1%
Seattle Mariners+50002.0%0.6%
Pittsburgh Pirates+66001.5%0.2%
Chicago White Sox+100001.0%0.1%
Kansas City Royals+100001.0%0.0%
New York Yankees+100001.0%0.1%

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