We are a third of the way through the 2017 MLB season. After two months several teams have surprised (Yankees, Twins and Brewers) and a few have disappointed (Cubs and Jays). With a summer left of baseball to be played which team is offering value to win the World Series? To find out we compared FanGraphs’ World Series projections to the future odds at 5dimes to find a few teams with value.
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the World Series and compare that to the projected odds that they are the last team standing. For example, Chicago is +525, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Cubs they would need to win it all 11.8% (which is 100/(525+100)) of the time. The Cubbies are projected to win the World Series 10.2% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +525 odds.
Here are a few teams with value.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Current odds: +900, Implied Probability: 10.0%
Dodgers win the World Series 18.4% of the time
L.A. has one of the best records in the NL and is on pace to win more than 97 games. The Dodgers pitching staff has the lowest ERA in baseball and has accumulated the most WAR. The offense has scored the seventh most runs and is top ten in batting average, OBP and slugging. The club has managed to do all of this while having the most players on the disabled list. The Dodgers are good now, most likely team to win World Series according to FanGraphs, and can get even better with a healthy roster, which is scary for the rest of baseball.
Dodgers vs. Brewers
This contrarian Pro System is +73.4 units since 2005
Current odds: +750, Implied Probability: 11.8%
Indians win the World Series 15.0% of the time
The Indians starting pitching ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA but ace Corey Kluber missed a month of starts and is back in the rotation (pitched six shutout innings in his return). The bullpen remains one of the best in baseball and the lineup is starting to produce. After a slow start to the season, Cleveland has averaged more than five runs per game since sweeping the Astros in late May.
Below are each teams odds and projected chance to win the World Series.
|Team||Odds||Implied Chance||Proj. Chance|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||+900||10||18.4|
|Boston Red Sox||+750||11.8||11.2|
|New York Yankees||+1350||6.9||4.6|
|St. Louis Cardinals||+2500||3.8||3|
|Toronto Blue Jays||+4000||2.4||2.2|
|Tampa Bay Rays||+6600||1.5||1.3|
|New York Mets||+2800||3.4||0.5|
|San Francisco Giants||+6600||1.5||0.2|
|Kansas City Royals||+12500||0.8||0.1|
|Los Angeles Angels||+8000||1.2||0.1|
|Chicago White Sox||+30000||0.3||0|
|San Diego Padres||+100000||0.1||0|