The first month of the MLB season is in the books. We are now a sixth of the way through the 2017 schedule. Chicago is still the favorite to repeat but is there value betting the Cubbies to win it all? To find out we compared FanGraphs’ World Series projections to the future odds at 5dimes to find a few teams with value.
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the World Series and compare that to the projected odds that they lift the Commissioner’s Trophy. For example, Chicago is +385, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Cubs they would need to win it all 20.6% (which is 100/(385+100)) of the time. The Cubbies are projected to win the World Series 16.0% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +385 odds.
Here are a few teams with value.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Current odds: +1250, Implied Probability: 7.4%
Dodgers win the World Series 16.6% of the time
The Dodgers got off to a slow start playing .500 baseball for most of April. One reason why, the club scored five runs per game when facing right-handed starters but only 3.5 runs per game when facing a left handed pitcher. Despite the uneven play FanGraphs still considers the Dodgers the most talented team in baseball and one of the favorites to win the World Series.
Current odds: +640, Implied Probability: 13.5%
Indians win the World Series 17.6% of the time
The Tribe’s pitching staff is one of the best in baseball. Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar have been great and the combination of Andrew Miller and Cody Allen has helped the bullpen to the second best ERA in baseball. FanGraphs gives the Indians the best chance of reaching the playoffs.
Current odds: +825, Implied Probability: 10.8%
Astros win the World Series 13.0% of the time
Dallas Keuchel is back to being an ace. The Astros’ front of the rotation pitcher has a 1.21 ERA and is 5-0 to start the season. The offense is humming and the bullpen is deep. Houston already has a 3.5 game lead in the AL West, if they continue this level of play they could run away with the division.
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All Pro System picks are +25.4 units in 2017
Below are each teams odds and projected chance to win the World Series.
|Team||Odds||Implied Chance||Proj. Chance|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||+1250||7.4||16.6|
|Boston Red Sox||+665||13.1||9.1|
|New York Yankees||+1400||6.7||3.2|
|St. Louis Cardinals||+2800||3.4||2.1|
|New York Mets||+1800||5.3||1.4|
|Los Angeles Angels||+8000||1.2||1.1|
|Tampa Bay Rays||+8000||1.2||1|
|Toronto Blue Jays||+5000||2||0.8|
|San Francisco Giants||+5000||2||0.7|
|Kansas City Royals||+8000||1.2||0.1|
|Chicago White Sox||+15000||0.7||0|
|San Diego Padres||+25000||0.4||0|