The Cubs, Giants and Yankees all lost on Opening Day. Chicago is the favorite to repeat, while San Francisco and New York have top ten World Series odds. After one game, do any of these teams have value to be crowned MLB champions? No but we compared FanGraphs’ World Series projections to the future odds at 5dimes to find a few teams with value.

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the World Series and compare that to the projected odds that they lift the Commissioner’s Trophy. For example, Chicago is the favorite at +400, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Cubs they would need to win it all 20.0% (which is 100/(400+100)) of the time. The Cubbies are projected to win the World Series 15.1% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +400 odds.

Here are a few teams with value.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Current odds: +1100, Implied Probability: 8.3%

Dodgers win the World Series 16.0% of the time

FanGraphs considers the Dodgers the most talented team in baseball and are a consensus pick to win the NL West. L.A. expects to have a healthy Clayton Kershaw, who has managed to lower his career ERA in each of the last eight seasons, an MVP candidate in Corey Seager and the league’s largest payroll – they aren’t afraid to spend money or make moves to improve the team.


Dodgers vs. Padres

Pro System pick for this game that is +151.5 units all-time

Which team should you bet?


Houston Astros

Current odds: +1325, Implied Probability: 7.0%

Astros win the World Series 10.3% of the time

Like the Dodgers, the Astros are the favorites to win their division. Step 1 in winning the World Series is making the playoffs. Houston had the youngest lineup in baseball last year so it’s not asking much for the team to take a step forward offensively. The Astros don’t have deep pockets like some teams but they have the third best farm system in baseball so making moves during the season to improve the team is a possibility.

Washington Nationals

Current odds: +1100, Implied Probability: 8.3%

Nats win the World Series 10.1% of the time

The Nats have a lot of questions to answer this season. Will Bryce Harper bounce back? Can Daniel Murphy maintain his MVP-level of play? Is Trea Turner destined for a sophomore slump? How many games will Stephen Strasburg pitch? Can Max Scherzer produce another Cy Young-worthy season? It seems daunting but the truth about Washington is the Nationals are a talented team capable of challenging the the Cubs and Dodgers in the NL.

Below are each teams odds and projected chance to win the World Series.

TeamOddsImplied ChanceProj. Chance
Chicago Cubs +4002015.1
Boston Red Sox +5651510.9
Cleveland Indians +65013.314.7
Los Angeles Dodgers +11008.316
Washington Nationals +11008.310.1
Houston Astros +1325710.3
New York Mets +16005.93.6
Toronto Blue Jays +17005.64
San Francisco Giants +18005.33.5
New York Yankees +26503.60.6
Texas Rangers +26503.61.5
St. Louis Cardinals +30003.22.3
Seattle Mariners +33002.91.1
Detroit Tigers +40002.41.2
Kansas City Royals +40002.40.2
Baltimore Orioles +500020.6
Colorado Rockies +500020.2
Pittsburgh Pirates +500020.4
Los Angeles Angels +1000011.8
Miami Marlins +1000010.4
Tampa Bay Rays +1000011
Arizona Diamondbacks +130000.80.2
Chicago White Sox +150000.70
Atlanta Braves +165000.60
Oakland Athletics +175000.60.3
Philadelphia Phillies +175000.60
Minnesota Twins +200000.50.1
San Diego Padres+250000.40
Cincinnati Reds+300000.30
Milwaukee Brewers+300000.30