After seven long months and 2,428 games, the 2016 MLB regular season is over. Baseball’s second season starts Tuesday with the AL Wild Card game. Before the playoffs begin considering making these World Series future bets.
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the World Series (at bookmaker 5Dimes) and compare that to the projected odds (per FanGraphs) that they lift the Commissioner’s Trophy. For example, Chicago is the favorite at +235, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Cubs they would need to win it all 29.9% (which is 100/(235+100)) of the time. The Cubbies are projected to win the World Series 18.7% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +235 odds.
Boston Red Sox
Current odds: +570, Implied Probability: 14.9%
Red Sox win the World Series 18.1% of the time
The Red Sox are one of the most balanced teams in baseball. Rick Porcello and David Price give the pitching staff a 1-2 punch that ranks third in the American League in ERA. The bullpen has been solid with the addition of Brad Ziegler and the returns of Koji Uehara and Craig Kimbrel from injury. The offense leads the majors in average, runs and RBIs. If Boston wins it’ll be with contributions from the entire team.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Current odds: +760, Implied Probability: 11.6%
Dodgers win the World Series 17.0% of the time
Clayton Kershaw, when healthy, is the best pitcher in baseball but his performance in the playoffs has been sub par. Is this the year the Dodgers’ ace shines? There is value in betting Los Angeles to win their first World Series since 1988.
San Francisco Giants
Current odds: +2500, Implied Probability: 3.8%
Giants win the World Series 4.1% of the time
Do you believe in even-year magic? If you place this bet you better. The Giants have reached the postseason once again in an even year. San Francisco won the World Series title in 2010, 2012 and 2014. San Fran had the best record in baseball at the All-Star break but stumbled in the second half. However, a sweep of the Dodgers in the final weekend of the season has them ready for another postseason run.
|Team||Odds||Implied Probability||Projected Chance|
|Boston Red Sox||+570||14.9%||18.1%|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||+760||11.6%||17.0%|
|Toronto Blue Jays||+1275||7.3%||7.6%|
|New York Mets||+2150||4.4%||1.8%|
|San Francisco Giants||+2500||3.8%||4.1%|