World Series Value Bets 10.14.16

World Series Value Bets 10.14.16

We’re down to the final four. The American League Championship Series starts tonight and the NLCS begins tomorrow in Chicago, here is which team you should bet to win the World Series.

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the World Series (at bookmaker 5Dimes) and compare that to the projected odds (per FanGraphs) that they lift the Commissioner’s Trophy.

For example, Chicago is the favorite at +145, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Cubs they would need to win it all 40.8% (which is 100/(145+100)) of the time. The Cubbies are projected to win the World Series 29.1% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +145 odds.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Current odds: +500, Implied Probability: 16.7%

Dodgers win the World Series 30.4% of the time

It would be easy to ignore the Dodgers in a matchup against the Chicago Cubs. For starters, the Cubbies have been the best team in baseball this season, have a rotation so deep that last year’s NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta is the No. 3 starter and a loaded lineup that features likely NL MVP Kris Bryant.

On top of that, the Dodgers enter the next round with question marks on who will start the first few games and which pitchers are available out of the bullpen.

Los Angeles has been dealing with adversity all season. They had 28 players on the disabled list and used 55 players this season (tied a franchise record). This team has quality starters and a lineup that blends veterans and youngsters.

The Cubs may be favored but the Dodgers offer the value.

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TeamOddsImplied ProbabilityProjected Chance
Chicago Cubs+14540.8%29.1%
Toronto Blue Jays+22530.8%25.6%
Cleveland Indians+45018.2%15.0%
Los Angeles Dodgers+50016.7%30.4%

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