What factors do you consider before placing a bet? The most common are home field advantage, injuries, line movement and public action. However, many casual bettors overlook the effect weather can have on a game. The forecast for Monday night’s showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) and Denver Broncos (3-3) calls for strong winds. How could these sustained gusts impact the total?
Wind is one of the biggest factors that can impact a game’s total. The stronger the wind is blowing the more profitable it has been to bet the Under. The table below shows the results for NFL Unders based on the average wind speed.
|Wind Speed||Record||Win Rate||Units|
|5 MPH or greater||1083-1031-36||51.2%||-9.76|
|10 MPH or greater||414-332-8||55.5%||+57.87|
Windy games make it harder to complete passes and to make field goals. There is value betting the Under in breezy games. There are a few more factors that make the Under appealing in tonight’s game.
Kansas City ranks No. 1 in offensive DVOA and has scored the 3rd most points per game but Denver is No. 1 in total defense and is 4th in defensive DVOA. Each team’s strengths cancel out and their weaknesses aren’t easily exploitable. KC’s pass defense has been a problem all year (28th in DVOA) and gave up 417 yards in a loss last week to Oakland but Trevor Siemian has thrown two touchdowns and five interceptions in his last four games.
One more advantage for Under bettors, the official for tonight’s game is Tony Corrente. Unders are 81-60 (57.5%) when he refs a game and in blustery conditions ( wind blowing 10 MPH or stronger): 16-7-1 (69.6%), +8.2 units.
At the time of publication, a majority of bets are on the Over in Chiefs-Broncos but more than 60% of money is on the Under. Squares like to cheer for points, fade the public and bet the Under.
Believe in Data
Build betting systems with millions of data points