It is pretty easy for the casual fan to understand the impact that wind can have on a game. Strong gusts can change the trajectory of a ball from what we would expect under normal conditions. Wind blowing out can turn a fly ball into a home run or wind blowing in can knock a dinger into a long out.
As the wind speed increases, so too does run production and the average total.
Average total and runs scored for all games since 2005
In games where wind is a non-factor (0-5 MPH) the average runs scored is 8.73. In games with extreme wind, gusts in excess of 16 MPH or greater, the average runs scored are 9.78. That is a 12% increase in run scoring when there is strong wind compared to negligible wind conditions.
Even though the bookmakers adjust for windy conditions by increasing the total there has historically been value betting the over. With winds of 16 MPH or greater the over has a win rate of 53.3% (349-306).
We know increased wind speeds influence runs scored. What impact does temperature have on baseball totals?