After a 2-1 victory on Monday, the Cubs can advance to the NLCS for a third straight year with a win on Tuesday. The Nats will do their best to extend the series but the weather might play a role too.
Game 3 was played in ideal conditions (mid-70s, little wind and no precipitation). The forecast for Game 4 calls for stiff winds over 15 MPH and a greater than 60% chance of rain.
Chicago is called the Windy City for a reason. What impact could these strong gusts have on the game?
At Wrigley, the average total for all games from 2005-2016 was 8.50 runs and the average runs scored were 8.93. This is in line with the averages throughout the majors. That all changes when the winds start howling.
The difference between the wind blowing in and blowing out on the north side is worth about three runs per game.
When the wind is blowing out the OVER has hit at a 63.9% rate. If the wind is blowing in just 43.4% of games go OVER the total. Wind blowing out can turn fly balls into home runs but if its blowing in homers become long outs.
At the time of publication, the forecast calls for average wind speeds of 16 MPH blowing in from center field. Nearly 70% of total bets are on the OVER but there is reverse line movement on the UNDER.
Casual bettors like cheering for runs to be scored but with blustery conditions the smart play is to bet the UNDER.
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