Tonight, on the north side of Chicago, Wrigley Field will host its first World Series game since 1945. The Cubs and Indians are tied at a game apiece but as the Fall Classic shifts to the Windy City, the venue change is the big story.
The National Weather Service has issued a “small craft advisory” warning. Gale force gusts up to 40 mph are being forecasted for Game 3 making for hazardous flying conditions. The expected stiff winds will be blowing out, which favors hitters.
Source: Sports Insights
Does wind really matter at Wrigley?
To answer that question, let’s start with the Bet Lab’s filter: Average Wind Direction.
In 44 games with the wind blowing in this year, there was an average of 7.4 runs scored. In 20 games when the wind was blowing out the offenses surged. On average, with blustery conditions there were 9.1 runs scored per game.
|Wind Direction||Number of Games||Average Runs Scored|
The wind does impact scoring but is there an edge in betting?
From 2005 to 2010, you could have blindly bet the over in Cubs games when the wind was forecasted to be blowing out at Wrigley and been highly profitable.
Nothing good lasts forever. Oddsmakers began adjusting the lines and the advantage bettors enjoyed has eroded. For example, in 2016, games where the forecast called for winds to be blowing in the average over/under was 7.7 runs. If the wind was projected to be blowing out toward the ivy-covered walls the average over/under was 9.0 runs.
Betting the over in windy games has been a losing proposition since 2011.
The winds will be howling at Wrigley tonight. We can expect scoring to increase but the bookmakers have already adjusted the line for this information.
Nonetheless, the number of tickets is evenly split on the total but more than 80% of the money is on the over.
There are six weather filters available to Bet Labs users. Analyzing the impact of the playing conditions has never been easier. Start building your systems today.