Coming off a fifth Super Bowl win, New England is a consensus favorite to repeat and a candidate to go 16-0. Pats fans are talking themselves into a perfect season but for as great as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have been, going undefeated isn’t likely. When will the Patriots lose?

Few expect the defending champions to stumble out of the gate. The Pats will raise the Super Bowl banner in Week 1 but could also take a loss. The Chiefs won 12 games last year and were a playoff team. According to our simulations KC will be a Wild Card team in 2017. New England is a touchdown favorite but at +350 there is value on the Chiefs to pull the upset.

Brady and crew will play the fifth easiest schedule in the league but the beginning of the season is no cake walk. After a tough Week 1 matchup the team goes on the road to New Orleans. The Saints were first in passing yards (317.1 yards), total offense (426.0 yards) and second in scoring (29.3 points) last season. On the fast track in the Superdome, the most value according to our simulations is backing Drew Brees +450 to best Brady for the Patriots first loss.

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There is a 53.2% chance that New England starts 2-0. Do the Texans (+1200) offer value in beating the Patriots Week 3? Yes. Houston was competitive in a divisional round loss last year to the Pats with Brock Osweiler throwing three interceptions. The team has an improved quarterback situation and a defense that ranked 8th in DVOA last year welcomes J.J. Watt back.

There is one last bet with value. You’ll call us crazy but can you say “trap game”? The lowly Jets season win total opened at 5.5. Few expect them to be competitive and New York will likely be double-digit dogs at home in Week 6. But the Pats could get caught looking ahead to a Super Bowl rematch against the Falcons in Week 7. At +5000, crazier things have happened.

By our numbers, the Patriots are favorites in every game this season and are the most likely Super Bowl champions. That doesn’t mean they won’t lose a game and there is value on the Chiefs, Saints, Texans and Jets to beat New England first.

When will the Patriots lose? (Bookmaker)

WeekOpponentOddsWin Probability
1vs. Chiefs+35077.5%
2at Saints+45068.7%
3vs. Texans+120081.4%
4vs. Panthers+90077.3%
5at Buccaneers+60066.2%
6at Jets+500084.9%
7vs. Falcons+110075.2%
8vs. Chargers+220083.4%
10at Broncos+130065.5%
11at Raiders+150068.1%
12vs. Dolphins+1000082.9%
13at Bills+500077.8%
14at Dolphins+500076.4%
15at Steelers+160052.2%
16vs. Bills+1500083.9%
17vs. Jets+1200089.3%