11 wins gets you in the playoffs, most of the time. Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 franchises, there have been 108 teams that won 11 or more games and 107 (99.1%) of them participated in the playoffs. The one team that didn’t was the 2008 Patriots (11-5) and the last team before them to not reach the postseason after winning 11 or more games was the 1985 Broncos. Will your favorite team win 11 games?
Using our 10,000 simulations of the 2017 NFL season we calculated the probability of every team winning 11 or more games. To no one’s surprise, the Patriots are the most likely team to win more than ten games. New England has an 86.1% chance of finishing 11-5 or better.
There are only two other teams, Seattle (55.4%) and Pittsburgh (52.0%), with better than a coin flip chance of getting to 11 wins. The Seahawks and Steelers have both won double-digit games the last three years.
Aaron Rodgers has led the Packers to 11 or more wins in four of his nine years as a starter. Green Bay has a 42.8% chance of doing so once again in 2017.
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Historically, 11 wins gets you in the playoffs. According to the bookmaker’s odds, the most likely teams to reach the postseason are also the most likely teams in our simulations to win 11 or more games.
The only way to guarantee a playoff spot is to win your division but finishing 11-5 or better is nearly a lock. Twelve teams make the playoffs and only three currently have better than a 50% chance of winning 11 or more games.
Probability of Winning 11 or more games
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