No team in football has a better chance of making the playoffs than the Patriots. New England is a clear favorite to win the Super Bowl. If everything goes right, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will bring a sixth Lombardi Trophy back to Foxborough this season. What if everything goes wrong? What’s the worst possible record for each NFL team?
A few caveats, this is based on 10,000 simulations using current rosters. If Brady retired, Gronk got hurt and Belichick quit we could make a case that the Pats wouldn’t win a game. That’s not what this article is about. We are looking at the worst “possible” record for each team based on variance or bad luck with the bounce of the ball, like a poor record in close games or negative turnover differential.
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What’s rock bottom look like in the NFL? For most teams, it means winning three or fewer games. The Browns, 49ers, Rams, Jets and Bears go winless at least one time in our simulations.
Only four teams manage to win four or more games. The Steelers and Packers go 4-12 ten times (0.1%) apiece in the simulations. Seattle’s nadir would be a 5-11 season. None of these franchises have experienced a losing season since 2011.
The Pats floor is in Jeff Fisher territory (7-9). New England has a 0.2% chance to win seven games. It would be the team’s first losing record since 2000. A lot would have to go wrong for New England to finish below .500, being on the wrong side of variance might not be enough.
It is the preseason, each team is full of hope. When the season kicks off some teams will disappoint but remember, it could always be worse. This is what rock bottom looks like in the NFL for each team.
2017 NFL Worst Possible Record
|Green Bay Packers||4-12||0.1%|
|Kansas City Chiefs||2-14||0.1%|
|New England Patriots||7-9||0.2%|
|New Orleans Saints||2-14||0.2%|
|New York Giants||3-13||0.4%|
|New York Jets||0-16||0.2%|
|Los Angeles Chargers||1-15||0.1%|
|San Francisco 49ers||0-16||0.2%|
|Los Angeles Rams||0-16||0.1%|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||2-14||0.2%|