It’s very likely you survived in Week 8 as every favorite of three or more points won their game. The problem is all of your competitors likely made it through as well. This week, I see five potential options to help you survive and advance to Week 10. Here is this week’s grid.
As always, I’ll show the model’s chance to win, the current winning percentage according to Pinnacle, the percentage of picks at Yahoo, and how many prospective games each team has remaining.
Texans – Model: 79.0% Pinnacle: 85.3% Yahoo: 36.6% Games Remaining: 3
Houston is a 13-point favorite at home and has the best chance to win this week according to both the model and the betting market. With no chance to fade the Browns this week, it’s no surprise that it’s also the most popular pick this week.
Seahawks – Model: 75.6% Pinnacle: 74.6% Yahoo: 4.2% Games Remaining: 5
Seattle is hovering around being a touchdown favorite around the market right now. Many people may have already used them previously which is why they make a great contrarian pick at only 4.2% of entries right now.
Eagles – Model: 71.0% Pinnacle 75.7% Yahoo: 4.6% Games Remaining: 2
In a very similar situation to Seattle above, laying around a touchdown at home this week and also contrarian at only 4.6% of entries currently. They also don’t have very many options remaining as their schedule gets tougher down the stretch. Only home games against the Bears and Raiders look like solid options remaining for Philadelphia. (Note: this percentage was calculated before Osweiler was named quarterback but don’t think there is any difference between him and Siemian anyway.)
Jaguars – Model: 67.6% Pinnacle: 66.7% Yahoo: 3.7% Games Remaining: 4
It’s certainly possible you have already used the three teams above and that would mean Jacksonville is certainly in play. They are currently a 4.5-point favorite against Cincinnati which means they wouldn’t be my first choice but if you are low on options, then you may be stuck with the Jags at home.
Saints – Model: 63.8% Pinnacle: 73.2% Yahoo: 30.9% Games Remaining: 2
The model doesn’t like the Saints’ chances of winning this week as much as the market although there have been some rumblings about Jameis Winston’s shoulder injury being worse than what has been reported. If Fitzpatrick were to start, the Saints definitely come into play but currently don’t like their expected value considering how popular of a pick they are.
Week 9 Rankings
I think the Eagles are the best pick this week if you have them at your disposal. As I said above, they don’t have a ton of options left this season so feel free to fire away on them this week. The Seahawks are just a touch behind them as they have more games where they figure to be decent-sized favorites.
The Texans are the consensus choice this week which is normally a complete fade, but if you have already used Philadelphia and Seattle, I think you have to pivot to Houston and join the crowd fading the Colts this week.
Looking at the current pick distribution for this week, I’m also seeing the Rams and Bills as popular picks this week. I think both of these choices are ill-advised and would avoid taking road favorites of only 3 or 3.5 points with other options available on the board.