Last week, the model only had two teams with a greater than 65% chance to win: the Steelers and Eagles. The Eagles rolled against the Cardinals while Ben Roethlisberger had his worst game as a professional and Pittsburgh fell to the Jaguars. Unfortunately, I went with Pittsburgh last week so I’m out of my pools. I’ll continue to do the same analysis as I know many of you are still alive and still appreciate it.
Let’s take a look at this week’s games:
Plenty of options this week! Let’s go through all of them going from the most likely to win to least likely according to the model.
Texans – Model 90.1% Pinnacle 78.8% Yahoo 33.8% Games Left: 2
The most likely team to win is also the most popular pick at Yahoo this week. The Texans will have to overcome some defensive injuries but they appear to have found their quarterback in Deshaun Watson. The Browns are the worst team in the league according to our latest power ratings. As we learned last week (arrgh), taking the most popular pick is usually not a good option in the long run.
Patriots – Model 77.9% Pinnacle 78.1% Yahoo 2.1% Games Left: 6
The Patriots meet in Week 6 with the exact same record. Nobody expected that, but that is not stopping the Patriots from being massive road favorites. The Patriots are big favorites but are only getting 2.1% of picks currently. They make an excellent contrarian choice if you still have them remaining.
Falcons – Model 77.1% Pinnacle 83.7% Yahoo 15.3% Games Left: 2
Atlanta was the team that a lot of people got knocked out on in Week 4 when they fell to Buffalo at home. If you avoided them then, they make a great option off a bye against the Dolphins. Sometimes there are some tough choices but fading Jay Cutler and the Miami offense doesn’t feel like one of them.
Redskins – Model 76.3% Pinnacle 80.5% Yahoo 12.6% Games Left: 1
The 49ers have been able to hang in most of these games but have nothing to show for it with an 0-5 record. The model likes San Francisco slightly more than the current market but still gives Washington a high chance of surviving at home.
Ravens – Model 74.8% Pinnacle 71.2% Yahoo 1.3% Games Left: 1
Baltimore has a little Jekyll & Hyde personality going this season as they are hard to figure out. Having a rookie quarterback com to your house on a short week should help the Ravens out though. Baltimore is another feasible contrarian choice this week.
Titans – Model 70.8% Pinnacle N/A Yahoo <1% Games Left: 0
This percentage is based on Mariota playing and it’s likely we wont know until late Sunday or Monday with the Titans playing on Monday Night Football. Don’t think it’s possible to take Tennessee with that big question mark under center.
Broncos – Model 69.5% Pinnacle 82.1% Yahoo 32.9% Games Left: 1
This is the game that the model and the market disagree on the most. It is difficult to adjust for so many injuries at one position (WR) for the Giants, but it could also be a big overreaction by the market while they don’t know either. With so many other options this week, I’ll trust the model and stay away from Denver this week.
The Pick – Atlanta Falcons
Avoiding the most popular pick is still the best strategy to have and that eliminates Houston. With so many more opportunities to use the Patriots, I think the Falcons are the best pick this week. Some of you may have different teams available so I’ll rank the teams in the order that I would use them.
Good luck to all of those still alive in their pools, I’ll continue to try to help with this analysis each week. Since I’m out of my pool thanks to the Steelers, I’ll continue to live vicariously through you. If you have any questions or want to discuss this week’s pick, hit me up on twitter @Bet_Labs (and give us a follow!).