Only five weeks remaining and good job if you are reading this and still alive. You’d have to dodge, dip, duck, dive, and dodge some bullets each week and you are hoping to get rewarded for your efforts late in the season. Let’s take a look at the grid for the remaining games this season.
I’m still going to be doing the normal breakdown for this week but I want to reiterate that situations become more unique this late in the season. If you have very few remaining entries, you can afford to be more chalky. You should also start to navigate your plan for the final five weeks and if possible, investigate what teams your remaining opponents have as options. All of this data can help you make a better decision each and every week.
Here are the games for Week 13:
Los Angeles Chargers – Model 86.6% Pinnacle 87.3% Yahoo: 83.8% Games Remaining: 2
More than four out of five entries at Yahoo are taking the Chargers and it’s hard to argue the logic. The logic of course being that they are playing the Browns. And while it would be easy to bring up the narrative that the Browns lone win last season came against the Chargers, I don’t feel that has any impact on this week’s game.
The Chargers are not the best option this week, but I don’t think they are a bad pick like some big favorites have been in previous weeks (most notably the Chiefs two weeks ago against the GIants). There are teams that are have a better expected value this week, but if you don’t have them available, then the Chargers will be just fine.
Jacksonville Jaguars – Model 85.7% Pinnacle 78.5% Yahoo 12.8% Games Remaining: 4
All five of the games remaining are legitimate options according to our model which continues to love the Jaguars more than the betting market. Even still, they are nearly a double-digit dog at home and make for a good pick this week. Of course, they could also easily be saved for some of their other remaining games.
New England Patriots – Model 75.8% Pinnacle 77.7% Yahoo 4.2% Games Remaining: 3
I would guess most of you have already used up your Patriots pick but if not they are a good option for every game remaining with the exception of Week 15 when they make a visit to Pittsburgh. If you do still have them remaining, you could make the case to save them, since their three other remaining options all figure to be bigger favorites than this week.
Los Angeles Rams – Model 73.1% Pinnacle 72.4% Yahoo 10.7% Games Remaining: 1
Taking a road team in a divisional game isn’t the ideal situation for survivor pools but lack of options could point you towards the Rams this week in Arizona. The Rams only have one game remaining that would be a viable option when they face the 49ers at home in Week 17. Only Pittsburgh has a better chance to win in the final week, and you wouldn’t expect the Rams to be in a position to rest any starters at that point either.
Oakland Raiders – Model 72.1% Pinnacle 77.1% Yahoo 11.2% Games Remaining: 0
The Raiders are the beneficiaries of the Giants benching Eli Manning and turning to their backup quarterback Geno Smith. Eli hasn’t been torching anyone but going to Geno figures to be a downgrade. Many players likely already burned up their Raiders choice when they played the Jets at home earlier in the season and with no other games left on the schedule, this is a good time to use Oakland if you still have them.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Model 65.6% Pinnacle 67.6% Yahoo 1.6% Games Remaining: 2
This is really the start of the second tier of options. I wouldn’t look to take Pittsburgh this week unless you’ve exhausted the five options above.
Baltimore Ravens – Model 65.1% Pinnacle 58.6% Yahoo 0.2% Games Remaining: 3
Another team that the model likes more than the market but I would still lean with one of the top five options listed above.
Here is how I would rank the options this week:
(1) Jacksonville Jaguars
(2) Oakland Raiders
(3) Los Angeles Rams
(4) New England Patriots
(5) Los Angeles Chargers
(6) Pittsburgh Steelers
(7) Baltimore Ravens
Best of luck this week making your decision and if you want to discuss strategy, hit me up on twitter @BetLabsTravis.