There is incredible power in understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios. Using Bet Labs massive database of proprietary sports betting information, you can easily build and explore data-driven betting systems.
Each week we will provide a betting trend for the most interesting NFL games. Some trends will be team specific and others situational. Our database goes back to 2003, the trends include all games in that time frame unless otherwise mentioned.
Bad Losing Streak, Fade the Pubic
Things have gone from bad to worse for the Cowboys. Jason Garrett’s team is still in the playoff hunt but a three-game skid, in which they’ve been outscored 92-22, has made Dallas a longshot to reach the postseason.
Dallas can get back to .500 with a win over Washington on Thursday night. The Cowboys are 1.5-point favorites at home but casual bettors are off last year’s NFC East champs. Less than 30% of spread tickets are taking the home favorite.
The Cowboys are a huge public team, so it’s surprising to see such lopsided betting action. In our database, Dallas has received less than 30% of spread bets as a favorite only seven times.
Are squares overreacting to a bad losing streak? Teams that have lost three games in a row by three or more scores (17 or more points) and the public is off them (40% or less of tickets): 86-57-2 (60.1%) ATS. Being a contrarian bettor means buying low and this feels like rock-bottom for the Cowboys.
Can bettors trust the Patriots on the road?
Remember when the Patriots started the season 2-2? The defense was allowing 32.0 points per game but since Week 5 Matt Patricia’s unit has been stingy. New England has given up the fewest points per game (13.1) during the team’s seven-game winning streak and are 6-1 ATS in that stretch.
The Pats look like the best team in football and oddsmakers are giving Bill Belichick and Tom Brady the respect they deserve. New England is listed as 7.5-point favorites on the road in Buffalo. Recreational bettors were not impressed with the Bills 16-10 win over the Chiefs and are pounding the Pats. More than 80% of spread tickets are going with the chalk.
Word of caution, favorites of a touchdown or more on the road: 106-132-5 (44.5%) ATS since 2003. In division games, the record drops to 42-57-3 (42.4%) ATS.
It is never fun betting against Brady, ask anyone who had the Falcons +3 in the Super Bowl, but history is not on the GOAT’s side Sunday.
They’ll cover eventually, right?
A team is its record and the Browns are 0-11. Worse yet, Cleveland has managed to cover just one game since playing the Steelers competitively in Week 1. Hue Jackson’s squad is a big dog on the road in Los Angeles. The Chargers are 13.5-point favorites and 78% of spread tickets are on L.A.
The Browns are longshots to win, +671 on the moneyline (13.0% implied probability), but all of these trends point to a Cleveland cover.
Double-digit dog after a double-digit loss
Cleveland lost 30-16 to Cincinnati in Week 12 and are 13.5-point dogs on the road. Double-digit dogs after a double-digit loss: 109-86-4 (55.9%) ATS
Against the pubic after a bad game
Teams that lost their previous game by 7 or more points and are getting less than 25% of spread tickets as an underdog: 122-81-2 (60.1%) ATS.
Bad ATS team vs. Good ATS team
Teams that have covered the spread in 30% or less of games are undervalued against teams that have a winning ATS record: 151-95-9 (61.4%) ATS in the second half of the season.
Buying Back on Steam
The Sunday night showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks is the marquee matchup of Week 13. This is the most bet game on the board with lopsided action on Philly (75% of bets).
The Eagles (10-1) opened as 3.5-point favorites but have been steamed up to 5-point favorites in Seattle. Many bettors like to chase steam but contrarian gamblers can profit by taking the other side when a line has been pushed too high. Our Pro System “Buying Back on Steam” targets underdogs in these games and has gone 121-71-5 (63.0%) ATS. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $4,436 playing this system since 2005.
Not only is there a Pro System pick on this game but Russell Wilson is 14-7-1 ATS as an underdog and a perfect 3-0 straight-up and ATS at home when getting points.
NFL Week 13: 12 games with Pro System picks
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