Last week, I told you not to take the Chiefs but 55% of pickers still did and were eliminated when Kansas City laid an egg against the Giants.  That means there aren’t many of you out there left that are still alive but we’ll still look at all the options and analyze our best plays this week.  And in Week 12, there are plenty of options.

In all, there are ten teams that have at least a 65% chance of winning in Week 12 according to the model.  Let’s break down all ten and then discuss the options.

 Model %Pinnacle %Yahoo Pick %Games Remaining
Patriots86.9%91.9%22.0%4
Steelers86.7%87.2%14.4%3
Eagles84.3%86.3%14.1%3
Ravens77.8%72.9%3.5%3
Chiefs76.3%79.9%6.2%3
Bengals74.1%78.1%15.8%0
Jaguars72.2%66.4%0%5
Seahawks71.5%72.9%11.4%1
Redskins70.0%72.9%4.7%2
Falcons67.3%78.1%9.2%0

The most popular choices this week are the Patriots, Bengals, Steelers, and Eagles.  Normally, I’m looking to go contrarian but the picks are pretty evenly distributed so there’s not one big team to fade to gain an edge like last week.

As of right now, there are zero percent of picks taking the Jaguars at Yahoo.  I don’t know if that’s a typo or a data issue or if everyone is saving them for later in the season but for now, nobody is taking Jacksonville.

With this many options and at this point in the season, I don’t know if it’s beneficial to rank all of them.  You likely don’t have many options remaining.  Personally, I only have three of the above options at my disposal: Chiefs, Seahawks, and Falcons.  I also think at this point, you want to map out your remaining games to make sure you have a good (or at least decent option in the remaining weeks).  Here is what mine looks like currently:

Week 12: Falcons (vs Bucs)
Week 13: Chargers (vs Browns)*
Week 14: Texans (vs 49ers)
Week 15: Vikings (vs Bengals)
Week 16: Chiefs (vs Dolphins)
Week 17: Rams (vs 49ers)

I have a star next to the Chargers because that could be very lopsided and the game that is most likely to change out of my list.  Again, this is written in pencil, not in stone.  You have to be willing to pivot off your plan if it makes sense to.

For this week, I really like using the teams without many options left.  Falcons, Seahawks, and Bengals all fit that mold.  As a contrarian pick, I really like the Ravens this week as well.  If you still have some of the heavy hitters left, I don’t think any of those are bad plays either.  As I said before, just make the most out of your options left and make sure you have a plan going forward.

If you want to discuss your options, hit me up on twitter @BetLabsTravis.