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Each week we will provide a betting trend for the most interesting NFL games. Some trends will be team specific and others situational. Our database goes back to 2003, the trends include all games in that time frame unless otherwise mentioned.
Cowboys (pick’em) vs. Chargers
Looking for some Turkey Day trends? We got you covered and in the spirit of giving, here is one more.
Is Jason Garrett a good coach? No, by this metric he is the worst in the league. Garrett and the Cowboys are 2-13-1 ATS (4-12 straight-up) with six or fewer days between games.
A short week is difficult on every team, less time to rest and prepare for the next opponent is a major disadvantage. Garrett has not mastered the quick turnaround.
Patriots (-17) vs. Dolphins
New England is the largest favorite of the season. It is the biggest spread since Week 16 last year (NE -17 vs. NYJ). Even with the exorbitant number, recreational bettors are flocking to the defending champs. More than 70% of spread tickets are going with the chalk. Usually, this would be an automatic fade of the public but Tom Brady is the exception to every rule.
Teams getting 70% or more of spread bets:
- Brady is 56-33-1 (62.9%) ATS
- All other quarterbacks: 508-566-28 (47.3%) ATS
Note: Teams favored by 17 or more points: 12-0 straight-up and 4-7-1 ATS
Eagles (-13.5) vs. Bears
The NFC East belongs to the Eagles after dismantling the Cowboys 37-9 on Sunday Night Football in Dallas. Philly can clinch the division this week with a win and losses by the Cowboys and Redskins. Usually teams after a blowout victory are overvalued but as in real estate, location is everything.
Teams after a blowout win (20 or more points)
- Previous game was on the road: 140-113-6 (55.3%) ATS
- Previous game was at home: 189-251-18 (43.0%) ATS
Chiefs (-10) vs. Bills
Somehow Kansas City has lost four of its last five games and is still in first place in the AFC West. The Chiefs latest clunker came against the Giants. KC was double-digit favorites in New York and lost outright to the G-Men 12-9. At the time of publication, a majority of spread dollars are on the Bills to cover but the Chiefs offer a great buy-low opportunity for contrarian bettors.
Teams that lost previous game as a double-digit favorite: 34-21-1 (61.8%) ATS
- Favored in next game: 18-8-1 (69.2%) ATS
Steelers (-13.5) vs. Packers
A couple weeks ago we highlighted Pittsburgh as a team with value to win the Super Bowl. One of the reasons we liked the Steelers was because of a favorable second half schedule. Of the team’s remaining six games, four are at home and only one is against a team with a winning record (Patriots). The Killer B’s march to a first-round bye and potentially home field advantage continues on Sunday against the Packers.
It is hard to cover a big spread in the NFL; the matchup is key.
- Against non-conference opponents: 67-53-1 (55.8%) ATS
- In conference game: 148-193-9 (43.4%) ATS
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