It’s Week 11 of the NFL season and by now you probably know the drill.  If you are new to the site, check out one of our previous posts such as Week 4 here.  For everyone else, let’s jump right in to the options.

Jaguars – Model 78.9%  Pinnacle 76.2%  Yahoo 33.5%  Games Remaining: 4

The Jaguars are the most likely team to pick up a win this week according to the model which has been high on Jacksonville for most of the season.  The market is right in-line and also likes the Jags this week.  Normally you want to try to avoid road teams but on the road against the Browns is the best road spot you can have.

Steelers – Model 77.9%  Pinnacle 72.4%  Yahoo 1.7%  Games Remaining: 5

Pittsburgh has looked lackluster in many games this season but they’re still a big home favorite against the Titans (currently -7).  Don’t forget that this is the Thursday game this week which means you’ll have to make this pick early if you want to ride with the Steelers.

Saints – Model 76.3%  Pinnacle 76.4%  Yahoo 3.6%  Games Remaining: 2

The Saints have climbed to the #2 spot in our latest power rankings and our model and the market are in total agreement on their chances to take down the Redskins on Sunday.  Despite New Orleans climbing to be one of the best teams in the league, they make for a good contrarian choice this week as only 3.6% of users are taking them.

Patriots – Model 69.3%  Pinnacle 72.3%  Yahoo 1.7%  Games Remaining: 5

It’s likely that you have already used the Patriots if you have gotten this far, but if not they have a great chance this week (and almost every other week remaining) to get a win.  Remember that this game is in a neutral location so Oakland doesn’t have the home field advantage that they would be used to.

Chiefs – Model 67.1%  Pinnacle 78.5%  Yahoo 56.9%  Games Remaining: 5

And now we finally get to the elephant in the room.  The Chiefs are the most popular pick this week with over half of entries fading the Giants this week.  I get it.  The Chiefs are the biggest favorite on the board (-13).  The Chiefs are coming off of a bye and Andy Reid is superb off a bye.  The Giants have a lame duck head coach.  The Giants aren’t actively trying to win games.  All of these are good points and I get why they are a popular pick.  But they are not a good pick this week in your pool.  Even if you think the model is wrong and you want to go off of the market percentage, the Chiefs still aren’t a good value play this week.  You almost always want to fade the most popular pick of the week and Week 11 is no different.  Save the Chiefs for later (like the Dolphins game in Week 16) and look somewhere else.

Week 11 Rankings:

(1) New Orleans Saints
(2) Pittsburgh Steelers
(3) Jacksonville Jaguars
(4) New England Patriots

The Saints are the best choice this week.  They only have two projected “easy” games left and are a contrarian option this week.  The other three options are fine as well depending on what options you have at your disposal.  I’ll reiterate that the Chiefs are a poor play this week and would avoid them altogether.

An “off-the-board” option could end up being the Los Angeles Chargers.  As I was posting this, the Bills announced the Tyrod Taylor would be benched for backup quarterback Nathan Peterman.  Philip Rivers is still going through concussion protocol but if he is cleared to play, the Chargers could up being roughly touchdown favorites at home against a backup and could be a really sneaky play that others in your pool won’t notice.

Agree with these choices?  Want to discuss (or mostly argue) about not taking the Chiefs this week?  Hit me up on twitter @BetLabsTravis.