No. 3 Florida State lost to No. 1 Alabama 24-13 Saturday night. Special teams were the Noles undoing. The Crimson Tide blocked a field goal, blocked a punt and forced a fumble on a kickoff return. Bama’s win makes them the clear favorites (+250) to win their fifth title in nine years. How does the loss impact FSU’s outlook?

History says Week 1 losers don’t win the National Championship. The last team to lose its first game of the season and win the title was the Miami Hurricanes in 1983. The Canes lost 28-3 to Florida to start its campaign but won out including a 31-30 Orange Bowl victory over No. 1 Nebraska.

A loss to the best program in the country doesn’t eliminate Jimbo Fisher’s team, especially in the College Football Playoff era. However, Florida State’s odds to win the National Championship have gotten longer.

The Noles title odds have fallen from +975 to +3300, part of the change stems from the loss of starting quarterback Deondre Francois.

Other top 25 teams that saw their title hopes dashed in Week 1: No. 17 Florida (lost 33-17 to No. 11 Michigan), No. 22 West Virginia (lost 31-24 to No. 21 Virginia Tech) and No. 23 Texas (lost 51-41 to Maryland). Each team’s odds more than doubled to win the College Football Playoff.

Biggest Winners based on Implied Probability

  • Ohio State (+800 to +600): +3.2%
  • Michigan (+2700 to +1400): +3.1%
  • Oklahoma (+1800 to +1200): +2.4%
  • Clemson (+3600 to +2000): +2.1%
  • Penn State (+2000 to +1600): +1.5%

Biggest Losers based on Implied Probability

  • Florida State (+975 to +3300): -6.4%
  • Florida (+4500 to +10000): -1.2%
  • Texas (+5000 to +12500): -1.2%
  • Washington (+2350 to +3300): -1.1%
  • Alabama (+245 to +250): -0.4%

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2017 National Championship Odds

TeamPreseason (5Dimes)Current (BetOnline)
Alabama+245+250
Ohio State+800+600
USC+775+800
Oklahoma+1800+1200
Michigan+2700+1400
Auburn+2000+1600
Penn State+2200+1600
Clemson+3600+2000
LSU+2000+2000
Florida State+975+3300
Georgia+3500+3300
Oklahoma State+4250+3300
Washington+2350+3300
Wisconsin+4000+4000
Louisville+5300+5000
Miami+8000+5000
Notre Dame+8700+5000
Stanford+11000+5000
Texas A&M+22500+5000
Oregon+11500+6600
TCU+11500+6600
Tennessee+10300+6600
Virginia Tech+9000+6600
Kansas State+12500+8000
UCLA+10300+8000
Florida+4500+10000
Washington State+16000+10000
Colorado+35000+10000
Iowa+40000+10000
Texas+5000+12500
Michigan State+60000+12500
Nebraska+22500+12500
West Virginia+50000+20000
NC State+22500+25000
Boise State+90000+35000