No. 3 Florida State lost to No. 1 Alabama 24-13 Saturday night. Special teams were the Noles undoing. The Crimson Tide blocked a field goal, blocked a punt and forced a fumble on a kickoff return. Bama’s win makes them the clear favorites (+250) to win their fifth title in nine years. How does the loss impact FSU’s outlook?
History says Week 1 losers don’t win the National Championship. The last team to lose its first game of the season and win the title was the Miami Hurricanes in 1983. The Canes lost 28-3 to Florida to start its campaign but won out including a 31-30 Orange Bowl victory over No. 1 Nebraska.
A loss to the best program in the country doesn’t eliminate Jimbo Fisher’s team, especially in the College Football Playoff era. However, Florida State’s odds to win the National Championship have gotten longer.
The Noles title odds have fallen from +975 to +3300, part of the change stems from the loss of starting quarterback Deondre Francois.
Other top 25 teams that saw their title hopes dashed in Week 1: No. 17 Florida (lost 33-17 to No. 11 Michigan), No. 22 West Virginia (lost 31-24 to No. 21 Virginia Tech) and No. 23 Texas (lost 51-41 to Maryland). Each team’s odds more than doubled to win the College Football Playoff.
Biggest Winners based on Implied Probability
- Ohio State (+800 to +600): +3.2%
- Michigan (+2700 to +1400): +3.1%
- Oklahoma (+1800 to +1200): +2.4%
- Clemson (+3600 to +2000): +2.1%
- Penn State (+2000 to +1600): +1.5%
Biggest Losers based on Implied Probability
- Florida State (+975 to +3300): -6.4%
- Florida (+4500 to +10000): -1.2%
- Texas (+5000 to +12500): -1.2%
- Washington (+2350 to +3300): -1.1%
- Alabama (+245 to +250): -0.4%
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2017 National Championship Odds
|Team||Preseason (5Dimes)||Current (BetOnline)|