The Golden State Warriors squandered a 17-point lead and lost their season opener to the Houston Rockets 122-121. It was a deflating start to a night that began with the team getting their rings and unveiling the 2016-17 championship banner.
Durant at the buzzer…
Just another night in the NBA. pic.twitter.com/xpe5v6kBN6
— Rob Perez (@World_Wide_Wob) October 18, 2017
What went wrong in the loss? Draymond Green got hurt, Steph Curry was in early foul trouble and head coach Steven Kerr said the team was “lacking conditioning.” Before everyone in the Bay area freaks out its important to remember this is one game. Last year the Dubs lost their season opener and went on to win 67 games and a title.
The upset stings but it provides a good betting opportunity. My theory is that teams off a loss as favorites would be undervalued in the 1st half of the next game.
Unfortunately, you can’t blindly bet every team that lost when laying points (49.7% ATS) but using the Bet Labs database, we can add a few filters to find a winning betting system.
It is critical to focus on well-rested teams. The Warriors are likely to be without Draymond on Friday night against the New Orleans Pelicans but his teammates should be refreshed, had time to forget about Game 1, and prepared for the next opponent. It has been profitable to bet teams off a loss with three or more days between games.
Next, we want heavily bet games. Using the “Number of Bets Compared to Daily Avg” filter we can ensure the matchup we want to target is getting at least the daily average in bets. The more money being wagered on a game the more opportunity to profit.
In heavily bet games, teams off a loss as a favorite that are well-rested have covered the first half spread 56.2% of the time since 2005. We can improve the system with one more filter.
Expectations are key. If a team lost their previous game as a favorite but are instilled as 1st half favorites in the next game our win rate improves. In the last ten years, this system is north of 60% ATS and has had only one losing season.
Golden State disappointed in Game 1 but look for the Warriors to bounce back and cover as 4.5-point favorites in the first half against the Pelicans tonight.
Got an NBA theory you want to test?
Find the answer with Bet Labs