The Warriors have a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals after routing the Cleveland Cavaliers 132-113 in Game 2. Golden State covered the 9-point spread by ten points. Contrarian bettors might assume it would be profitable to fade a team following a cover by double-digits but they’d be wrong. The Warriors are great after an easy ATS cover.
It is true, there is no value blindly betting a team after they crush the spread in the previous game.
Since 2005, teams that covered the spread in their previous game by 10 or more points were just 50% ATS, -137.2 units in the next game.
However, if we focus on just squads that are favored on the road following an easy cover (by 10 or more points) there is value betting these teams.
Since 2014, the Warriors have been the most profitable team in the NBA after an easy cover.
In that same time, Golden State is a ridiculous 21-6 (77.8%) ATS when they are road favorites following an easy against-the-spread win.
The Warriors are 3-point favorites in Cleveland for Game 3. More than 70% of spread bets are on Golden State and according to this trend that is the right side.
2017 NBA Finals
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