Last night, the Warriors played their first game since the All-Star break and they came out a little rusty.  Even without Chris Paul, the Clippers were able to jump out to an early lead and headed to halftime up 61-49.  Most everyone’s immediate thought is that the Warriors would come back and make it a competitive game in the second half.  The betting market agreed, posting Golden State as 14-point favorites in the second half.

What happened next was just incredible.  The Warriors scored 50 points (!) in the 3rd quarter and ended up outscoring the Clippers in the second half 74-52.  This means that Golden State covered the second half by eight points and everyone that assumed it was a given that the “Dubs” would come back were rewarded with a second half win.

So is it really that simple to always bet the Warriors to come back in the 2nd half?  Well no, not exactly.  In fact that is the exception rather than the rule.  When looking at the last three seasons when the Warriors are down at halftime, here is their ATS results on the second half line:

First off, there just aren’t that many opportunities to bet this team when they are down at half.  Secondly, when they are in that situation they have only covered the spread 44.1% of the time.  So while it may seem like Golden State is an easy pick to come back when down at the half, it just hasn’t been the case.  If something sounds too good to be true, it usually is.


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