The NBA Playoffs are long. The 2017 postseason began on April 15th and could end in a potential Game 7 in the NBA Finals on June 18th. That is two months of basketball on top of an 82 game regular season. All those games take a toll on the players. This has led to value on the UNDER late in series.
Since 2005 there has been value on the UNDER in all playoff games. Defense becomes more important in the postseason, each possession matters more.
There is a clear difference in value on the UNDER between games early and late in a series.
As a series progresses teams become more familiar with each other. Defensive adjustments are made and teams begin to fatigue, which leads to less scoring.
In the last ten years, the UNDER is 128-103 (55.4%), +18.45 units in Games 5 to 7 in the series. There has only been one losing season during that time.
Game 5 tonight between the Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards opened with a total of 216. More than 70% of bets are on the OVER, which is normal. More than 50% of bets are on the OVER in 90% of all playoff games in our database.
The game could go OVER but there has historically been value on the UNDER late in a series.
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