If the playoffs started today, eight new teams would be in the postseason. Only the Patriots, Steelers, Chiefs and Seahawks would be holdovers from last year. The NFL prides itself on parity but this is bonkers.

Bovada is offering prop bets on four teams (Dallas, Atlanta, Green Bay and Seattle) to make or miss the playoffs. After 10,000 simulations of the 2017 season, here is how to bet these props.

Seattle Seahawks – Make

Current odds: -400, Implied Probability: 80.0%

Seahawks make the playoffs 85.6% of the time

Losing Richard Sherman hurts but getting Jeremy Lane back and signing Byron Maxwell limits the impact of replacing the elite corner. The Seahawks have a lot to gain in Week 11. A win over the Falcons, plus a loss by the Cowboys on Sunday night, would give Pete Carroll’s team a two-game lead in the Wild Card. Plus, owning the tiebreaker over the Rams, the team has a legit chance to win the NFC West.

Atlanta Falcons – Miss

Current odds: -120, Implied Probability: 54.5%

Falcons miss the playoffs 73.3% of the time

The Falcons best hope of returning to the postseason is as a Wild Card (just a 6.4% chance to win the division). The team’s schedule down the stretch is brutal with games against Seattle, Minnesota and Carolina as well as two matchups against the NFC South leading New Orleans Saints. Narrow losses to the Panthers, Dolphins and Bills early in the season are likely to come back to haunt last year’s Super Bowl runner-up.

Dallas Cowboys – Miss

Current odds: -120, Implied Probability: 54.5%

Cowboys miss the playoffs 75.1% of the time

Dallas’ first game without Ezekiel Elliott didn’t go well. The Cowboys lost by 20 points to the Falcons ending a three-game winning streak. Sunday night’s matchup against the Eagles is must-win if the ‘Boys are to have any chance at winning the division. Assuming they come up short against Philly, with a .500 record, Dallas is a longshot to make the playoffs a year after getting the No. 1 seed in the NFC.


Week 10: Cowboys vs. Eagles

This Pro System is 142-89-4 (61.5%) ATS since 2003

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Green Bay Packers – Miss

Current odds: -150, Implied Probability: 60.0%

Packers miss the playoffs 95.4% of the time

How is Green Bay only -150 to miss the playoffs? Maybe it’s because Aaron Rodgers looks like he could play tomorrow. The Packers star quarterback could return this season but where will the team be in six weeks? The Cheesheads (5-4) have a winning record yet are underdogs in each of their next two games. Losses to the Ravens and Steelers would knock them even further behind in the Wild Card race.

NFL Playoff Odds and Probabilities   

TeamMakeMissProj. Chance Make
Atlanta Falcons-120-12026.7
Dallas Cowboys-120-12024.9
Green Bay Packers+110-1504.6
Seattle Seahawks-400+25085.6