The Houston Astros evened the World Series at one game apiece with a 7-6 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday night. The 11-inning affair was the 36th playoff game to go to extra-innings since 2005.
Game 3 takes place Friday in Houston. The Astros have opened as -114 favorites on the moneyline. After a dramatic win, does Houston have an advantage over L.A.?
Casual bettors might believe that teams would play better after a big win. If momentum exists, then the Astros would have it following an emotional win in Game 2. Does the data support this conclusion?
In the MLB postseason, teams that won the previous game have gone 253-237 (51.6%) in the next game since 2005. After a win in extra-innings teams are 17-15 straight-up. Note: three of the previous 35 extra-inning games in the playoffs ended the World Series.
If you like the Astros in Game 3, don’t bet on them because they have momentum after Game 2. There is value on Houston because square bettors are backing the Dodgers.
A simple strategy for the MLB playoffs is betting against the public. It has been profitable to wager on teams getting 50% or less of moneyline bets.
At the time of publication, 55% of moneyline tickets are on the Dodgers. Teams getting 50% of less of ML bets after an extra inning win have gone 12-8, +6.49 units. The public is on L.A., contrarian bettors will be with the Astros.