Last season, we added the ability to analyze money percentages in Bet Labs. Users have always been able to use the percentage of tickets within their systems, but this new feature allowed us to take a deeper look at how the percentage of dollars bet affects things.
I’m going to break down a system I created and discuss some theories about why it works. The original idea for this system was looking for teams that weren’t receiving very much public support but were receiving a majority of the dollars bet on the game. I ended up using the 0-30% range for Spread % and 50-100% for the Spread Dollars % as you can see in the screenshot.
The next thing I wanted to look for was line movement. Line movement can be caused by many things, but for the most part it is caused by cash and usually by cash that knows what they are doing. I used the filter to look at any game where there had been at least a half-point line move in favor of the team getting the majority of dollars on them. This is a good indicator that there is sharp action on this side.
It’s important to note that the record shown is actually using the closing line (at Pinnacle). That means that even though there has been a line move, it has still been profitable after the line move. If you were able to spot games that qualify for this system early, you could improve your winning percentage even more.
The final filter used is to focus on conference games. Only 22 non-conference games were originally included so excluding these games doesn’t cause a drastic decrease in sample size. The other reason I wanted to look at conference games is because we have seen evidence that there is more public betting later in the season (during conference play) than we have early in the season. When there is more public action, the betting percentage and money percentage hold more weight than they would for a game played earlier in the season.
As I said before, the money percentage is a relatively new feature so we only have data for the part of the past two seasons. That said, I think this ~100 game sample system should be profitable going forward although I wouldn’t expect the 66% win rate to hold up. When you have a system that easily indicates a sharp vs public side, I’ll always favor the sharp side in that scenario.
Current members can copy this system directly from the Think Tank by clicking here.
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