Context

Kansas City is on a roll. The Chiefs improved to 4-0 by rallying to beat Washington on Monday. With wins over the Patriots and Eagles, KC is among the favorites to win the Super Bowl but the schedule is about to get tough. Andy Reid’s squad will play three straight games against 2016 playoff teams. The first is a road trip to Houston on Sunday.

Should bettors wager on the streaking Chiefs or the resurgent Texans?

Besides the wild cover against the Redskins in Week 4, Kansas City has made beating the spread look easy. The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS and have covered the line by more than a touchdown on average. Against New England less than 40% of spread tickets were on KC but after the upset against the Pats on average 64.3% of spread bets have been laying the points with the lone undefeated team in the NFL. The good times won’t last, at least from a betting perspective.

Teams that have been easily covering the spread tend to regress. Oddsmakers adjust the lines just as the public begins to pile on. Don’t get caught cashing, fade teams on a roll.

Trend

Fade Teams on a Roll

This Pro System has gone 264-201 (56.8%) ATS, +45.57 units since 2005.

Our Pick

This betting system has never had a losing record, it went 20-20 ATS in 2011. Not only is fading a team on a roll against the number a consistent winning strategy, it improves when that team is getting the majority of bets. If 60% or more of spread bets are backing the team that has been covering going against the public has hit at 58% ATS. At the time of publication, 70% of bets are on the Chiefs. Fade the team on a roll and bet the Texans.


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