Context

Cleveland is a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad NFL team. After an 0-5 beginning to the season, the Browns have named Kevin Hogan the starter on Sunday, it will be the first start for the former fifth round pick. This is the 28th different signal caller to start a game for Cleveland since 1999.

At the time of publication, a majority of spread tickets are on Houston as double-digit favorites. Should bettors fade the Browns?

Contrarian betting means buying on bad news and selling on good. Not only is Cleveland winless but the Browns have been killing bettors this season. Hue Jackson’s squad is the second least profitable ATS team in 2017. Betting underdogs that have failed to cover the spread early in the season is an effective strategy. Casual bettors will fade these poor performing teams causing the line to be inflated.

Trend

Horrible Teams

This Pro System has gone 99-65 (60.4%) ATS, +28.03 units since 2003.

Our Pick

Are you hesitant to pull the trigger? Perhaps you lack confidence in Hogan as a quarterback. That’s fair but he doesn’t need to perform at a high level to be an upgrade. With DeShone Kizer, last in Total QBR and most interception (9), running the offense the Browns had scored the second fewest points in the league. Cleveland was bad before Hogan got a start, they probably won’t be any good with him under center but teams that fail to cover against-the-spread early in the season are undervalued.


NFL Pro Systems

All NFL picks are 34-21 (61.8%), +10.46 units in 2017

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