Context

TCU (17-12, 6-10 Big 12) will host Kansas State (17-12, 6-10 Big 12) in a bubble elimination game tonight. Both teams are on the fringe of the NCAA tournament conversation. The Horned Frogs have lost five straight, while the Wildcats have dropped eight of their last ten. Both teams are desperate for a win and bettors need a cover.

Which squad is the smart bet?

A new filter in Bet Labs is “Spread Dollar %”. This feature allows users to analyze how dollars bet impact a game. Incorporating betting percentage as well as line movement has generated a Pro System that is 66% ATS.

Currently, Kansas State is getting less than 30% of spread bets (contrarian) but nearly 60% of spread dollars (sharp action) and there has been a line movement of one point in the Wildcats favor. Bet Kansas State +2 at TCU.

Trend

Bet teams against the public that are getting a majority of the dollars bet.

This Pro System has gone 64-33 (66%) ATS all-time has returned a profit of +27.8 units.

Our Pick

Money disparity causes line movement in college basketball. Despite the majority of squares backing TCU, sharp bettors are on Kansas State. The line has moved from TCU -3 to -2 and could continue to drop. Bet KState plus the points before any more value is lost.

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