Context

Offense has been a problem for the Giants lately. The Eli Manning-led unit has scored fewer than 20 points in seven straight games including the playoffs. New York managed just a field goal against the Cowboys in Week 1. Points weren’t a problem for the Lions as Matthew Stafford threw four touchdowns in a season opening win over the Cardinals.

New York is favored at home in Week 2 but the majority of spread tickets are on Detroit. Which is the smarter bet: Giants or Lions?

Betting against the public is a profitable strategy in the NFL. The more lopsided the action the better the return for fading casual bettors. At the time of publication, over 80% of spread bets are on Detroit. Teams getting less than 30% of bets that are coming off a bad offensive game have covered over 60% against-the-spread since 2003.

Trend

Against the public after bad offensive game

This Pro System has gone 136-89 (60.4%) ATS, +38.18 units since 2003.

Our Pick

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport believes Odell Beckham Jr. will be active in Week 2. The star receiver missed the first game of the season with a high ankle sprain. Having the dynamic playmaker back in the lineup would be a boost to the offense. The Giants looked bad in Week 1, don’t overreact to one game. Bet New York at home on Monday Night Football against the public after a bad offensive performance.


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NFL Pro System picks started 5-1 in 2017

8 picks for Week 2