Context

Philly’s home opener Sunday comes against a struggling Giants team. New York is off to an 0-2 start and has lost both games by at least two scores. The G-Men are desperate to keep their season alive while the Eagles need a win to get over .500.

Philadelphia is a 6-point favorite in this divisional matchup. Over 75% of spread bets are on the Eagles. Is that a smart wager?

A simple contrarian strategy for sports betting is buying on bad news and selling on good. The best place to start is backing a team off a loss. Most casual bettors tend to be reactionary and this week all they will hear is that the Giants season is over after two games. As we would expect most square bettors are fading Eli and crew. However, playoff teams from the previous season that are underdogs after a loss with no public support have covered over 60% against-the-spread since 2004.

Trend

Playoff dog off a loss, against the public

This Pro System has gone 70-41 (63.1%) ATS, +25.21 units since 2004.

Our Pick

The offense is a mess without Odell Beckham Jr. but the star receiver should be nearing full strength five weeks after suffering an ankle injury. With a solid defense the Giants should be competitive in most games. Few 0-2 teams make the playoffs but we aren’t betting New York to reach the postseason. We just need them to cover against a division opponent on Sunday.


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All Football Pro System picks: +22.97 units in 2017

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