Carson Wentz is the MVP favorite and the Eagles are an NFL-best 6-1. San Francisco is 0-7 and has a 36.4% chance of getting the first pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. What happens when a winless team faces the league’s best? You get a big spread. Oddsmakers have listed the Eagles as 13-point favorites at home on Sunday against the Niners.
Casual bettors have not shied away from the large number. At the time of publication, a majority of spread tickets and dollars are on the NFC-leading Eagles. Should bettors follow the money or fade the public?
That was a silly question. Fade the public, of course! The lookahead line for this game prior to Week 7’s action was Philly -10. The Eagles crushed the Redskins on Monday night and the Niners, well they look like a team destined for the top pick after a 40-10 beat down at home against the Cowboys. Bookmakers adjusted the line to -13 and are still getting plenty of money on the Eagles. Public perception is everything in sports betting. Squares are on Philadelphia, which means contrarian bettors should back San Francisco. Since 2003, favorites of 10 or more points against winless teams have gone 36-51 (41.4%) ATS. Fading popular favorites and betting double-digit dogs, like the Niners, after a bad loss has been a profitable strategy.
Double Digit Dog After Double Digit Loss
This Pro System has gone 47-18-2 (72.3%) ATS, +25.9 units since 2003.
Contrarian betting means buying low and selling high. There is no better opportunity to buy low than backing a big underdog after a bad loss, especially when the public is on the other side. Double-digit dogs after a double-digit loss getting less than 50% of spread bets have gone 102-76-3 (57.3%) ATS since 2003. Following the Pro System, the win rate jumps to over 70% ATS.
NFL Pro Systems
All picks are 44-28 (61%) ATS in 2017