Context

The Arizona Diamondbacks won the first game of the series against the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night 10-2. The Dbacks will send ace Zack Greinke (7-3, 3.06 ERA) to the mound tonight against Luis Perdomo (0-2, 5.01 ERA). Arizona is ten games over .500, while San Diego is already buried in the NL West.

All signs point to taking the Diamondbacks, but is that the right side?

Casual bettors will look at the team records, who is pitching tonight and throw all their money on the Dbacks. Which provides a great opportunity to bet against the public. This contrarian approach backs underdogs in division games that are receiving less than 30% of the moneyline bets. If square bettors are taking the Diamondbacks, smart money will be on the Padres.

Trend

Betting Against the Public

This betting system has gone 677-802 (45.8%) on the moneyline, +154.6 units all-time.

Our Pick

Zack Greinke is 10th in the NL in ERA, fourth in WHIP and fifth in strikeouts. The Dbacks pitcher is 9-2 with a 1.93 ERA against San Diego. Arizona can’t lose, right? Wrong. The public is backing the Diamondbacks, be contrarian and bet the Padres.


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