Context

Game three of a four-game set between the Chicago Cubs (62-56) and the Cincinnati Reds (50-70) is scheduled for Wednesday night. This is an important series for the defending champions who are looking to pull away in the NL Central. Yet off a loss to a team 20 games below .500 can the Cubbies bounce back?

At the time of publication, Chicago is a -200 favorite. Teams favored on the moneyline between -190 and -210 have won 65.9% of regular season games since 2005. The Cubs have to feel good about their chances of being victorious tonight. However, there is no value on the North Siders.

Underdogs in division games have historically been undervalued. Underdogs in games with high totals also offer value. The total for tonight’s game is 9 (Over -125). This Pro System takes advantage of both of these trends. The Reds are underdogs tonight in a high total game against a division rival. Bet Cincy on the moneyline vs. Chicago.

Trend

Road Division Dog off a Win

This moneyline Pro System is 59-69, +10.8 units in 2017 and +264.2 units since 2005.

Our Pick

It has been a disappointing season for the Reds. Casual bettors will look at the team’s win last night over Chicago as a fluke and assume it is unlikely a bad team can win two games in a row. At the time of publication, over 80% of moneyline bets are on the Cubbies. The Lovable Losers are expected to win but the value is on the Reds.


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