An NFC South showdown between the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers features two teams heading in opposite directions. Drew Brees and the Saints have won five straight and are the fifth most profitable team against-the-spread in 2017 (5-2 ATS). After starting 2-1, Jameis Winston and the Bucs are on a four-game skid and have wrecked bettor’s bankrolls going 1-5-1 ATS.
One betting theory in the NFL is that when good teams play bad teams, bet the bad team. Oddsmakers know casual gamblers like wagering on winning teams and will shade the line. Is this a profitable betting strategy?
Team’s with a losing record have gone 700-685-39 (50.5%) ATS vs. teams with a winning record. Simply looking at a team’s win-loss record is not enough. To find a profitable betting strategy we need to focus on a team’s spread record. We know the public has a tendency to chase bets.
At the time of publication, 67% of spread bets are on the Saints after covering in five of the team’s first seven games. Bettors are leery of putting money on the Bucs as underdogs after repeatedly being burned. Contrarian bettors can profit from this by betting bad ATS teams against good ATS teams.
Bad ATS vs. Good ATS
This Pro System has gone 148-92-9 (61.7%) ATS, +48.04 units since 2005.
Note: This system doesn’t just bet teams with losing ATS records against teams with winning ATS records. There are additional filters available to Bet Labs subscribers.
Receny bias, like Rick James would say, is a hell of a drug. A team’s ATS record shouldn’t influence the betting market but squares love the Saints. New Orleans is -300 on the moneyline, 75.0% implied probability of winning. According to our simulations, Brees and the Saints have 63.8% chance. Squares are undervaluing Tampa Bay, the smart play is Bucs +7.
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