Context

Oakland (-3.5) got blown out in primetime at Washington and Denver (-3.5) stumbled in Buffalo Sunday afternoon. The disappointing Week 3 results make Broncos-Raiders a critical game for the AFC West rivals chasing the 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs.

Which team is a better buy low opportunity?

Casual bettors are prone to overreacting to recent events. Since 2003, there has been some value betting teams off a loss. Which side is the public favoring? Denver’s defeat got lost in the shuffle amongst wild finishes in Detroit and New England in the early slate last week. Oakland on the other hand laid an egg on Sunday Night Football. Bettors have remembered the Raiders’ poor performance and are fading (<35% of bets on OAK) Derek Carr and company.

Not only is it valuable to bet against the public but teams off a loss on a road trip have covered more than 57% against-the-spread. The win rate peaks if you look at just games against conference opponents (increased familiarity). A week ago, you could argue that the Raiders were the best team in football. After a loss, the public is off Oakland, perfect time to buy back.

Trend

On road trip, Off a loss

This Pro System has gone 239-167 (58.9%) ATS, +62.3 units since 2003.

Our Pick

For those wondering, when both teams are off a loss, this Pro System has gone 128-84 (60.4%) ATS betting the road team. The Raiders played a bad game (128 yards of offense and 3 turnovers), casual bettors are loading up on Denver. Fade the public and bet the Raiders.

NFL and College Football Pro Systems

All football picks: +30.1 units in 2017

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