Trend of the Week: Washington vs. Stanford

Trend of the Week: Washington vs. Stanford

Trend

Bet small college football underdogs in games with low totals.

Context

Washington will host Stanford Friday night in the first matchup of top 10 teams at Husky Stadium in 19 years. The victor will become the favorite from the Pac-12 to get to the College Football Playoff.

The Huskies are 4-0 but most of the wins came against a cupcake schedule. Washington needed overtime to beat Arizona last week in the team’s first real challenge of the season. Stanford is also undefeated (3-0) with wins against Kansas State, USC and UCLA. The Cardinal needed a score with less than 30 seconds to play to beat the Bruins.

Neither team is without flaws but one will remain perfect after Friday.

This trend favors teams getting points in games with low totals. Since the expectation is that the game will be low scoring, then there is less of a chance for a blowout. This means the underdog can keep the game competitive.

Results

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This system has been profitable in ten of the last eleven years. It has started the 2016 season 11-8 (58% ATS). All-time, this system has returned 92.29 units of profit.

Current System Picks

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Washington opened as 3.5 point favorites. Early money is on the Cardinal to cover. The consensus betting line at the time of writing is Huskies -3. It would be advantageous to bet Stanford plus the field goal before the line moves again.

The play is on Stanford plus the points.

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