If a game features high walk rate pitchers, take the over.
A pitcher’s walk rate is a good indicator of the quality of pitcher. If the starter walks a lot of batters then typically they allow more runs.
Pitching is more complicated than just one stat but this trend is pretty simple. If both starting pitchers have a high walk rate then the over tends to hit. We are looking for pitchers with walk rates over 10 percent.
Here is a general rating system for walk rates per FanGraphs:
League average is 7.7 percent, awful is 9.0 percent and we are talking about pitchers with walk rates of 10 percent or worse.
Since 2005, taking the over against pitchers with horrible walk rates has gone 388-314 (55.3%) and has returned +$5,755.
This season the trend has gone 40-32, +$528.
Current System Picks
Saturday the play is on the OVER when the Diamondbacks host the Dodgers.
Want more picks? There are currently 34 Think Tank trends for MLB games this weekend.