If a game features high walk rate pitchers, take the over.


A pitcher’s walk rate is a good indicator of the quality of pitcher. If the starter walks a lot of batters then typically they allow more runs.


Pitching is more complicated than just one stat but this trend is pretty simple. If both starting pitchers have a high walk rate then the over tends to hit. We are looking for pitchers with walk rates over 10 percent.

Here is a general rating system for walk rates per FanGraphs:

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League average is 7.7 percent, awful is 9.0 percent and we are talking about pitchers with walk rates of 10 percent or worse.


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Since 2005, taking the over against pitchers with horrible walk rates has gone 388-314 (55.3%) and has returned +$5,755.

This season the trend has gone 40-32, +$528.

Current System Picks

Saturday the play is on the OVER when the Diamondbacks host the Dodgers.

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