Context

It is the day after Christmas but there is one more gift to unwrap. The NFL has kindly given us a merry Monday night showdown featuring the Cowboys and Lions.

Dallas needs a win to earn a first round bye and home field advantage. A Detroit victory would put the Lions one step closer to winning the team’s first division championship since 1993.

Who’s been naughty or nice, we find out Monday.

Road underdogs are historically undervalued, as are teams coming off a loss. The Lions match these criteria and are facing a Cowboys team that gets a ton of public support, which leads to favorable line movement.

Trend

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Bet teams on a road trip off a loss with favorable line movement.

This Pro System has gone 167-97 (63.3%) ATS, +63.32 units.

Our Pick

Detroit has everything to play for on Monday. The same might not be true for the Cowboys. If the Giants lose on Thursday night then Dallas clinches the top seed in the NFC. Motivation could be a factor and the Lions plus the points is the side to bet.

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