Trend of the Week: Cowboys vs. Bears

Trend of the Week: Cowboys vs. Bears

Trend

Bet teams in primetime games getting 2 or more points from the opening line.

Context

Primetime games are the most watched and most bet games. This system takes advantage of that fact when the line moves in favor of a team by at least 2 points. This is a clear indication that the public has overreacted to a piece of news, possibly an injury or a suspension.

In this case it is Jay Cutler’s thumb injury.

The Bears quarterback played through Monday night’s loss to the Eagles with ligament damage in his right thumb. Multiple team sources indicate that Cutler suffered the injury in the season opener. Cutler’s backup is journeyman Brian Hoyer.

Results

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This Pro System has seven straight winning seasons and is 51-29 against-the-spread in that time frame returning 19.36 units.

Current System Picks

Dallas opened as 4.5 point favorites at home before the Bears’ Monday night game. Cutler’s injury has caused the line to inflate. The Cowboys are now favored by 7.5 points in Arlington. Fun fact: Dallas has failed to cover in nine straight home games as touchdown or greater favorites. Brian Hoyer, assuming he starts for Chicago, is 16-9 against-the-spread in his career.

The play is on the Bears plus the points.

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