Back-to-Backs in the NBA

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NBA players have an open disdain for back-to-back games in the regular season. The 82 game grind is hard enough without the wear and tear associated with playing games on consecutive days.

The NBA has taken steps to reduce the number of back-to-backs. Last year teams played on average 17.8 (down from 19.3 in 2014), this year that number is even lower with teams averaging 16.3 games on successive nights. This is great news for players but horrible for bettors.

Why?

There is a betting edge taking NBA teams on the second night of a back-to-back but you can’t just bet teams playing consecutive games.

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Since 2004, teams on a back-to-back have won less than 50% of their games against-the-spread. However, that changes if you look at teams on the road.

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Home court advantage isn’t what it once was in the NBA. The average margin of victory for home teams in the NBA has been on the decline for more than a decade.

Road teams playing a back-to-back have gone 2,308-2,253 (50.6%) ATS. That is better but still not profitable. We can improve this system further when the team is not only on a back-to-back but also on a road trip.

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Teams in this situation have gone 1,273-1,199 (51.5%) ATS, +17.5 units.

We just proved that bookmakers shade the lines for teams playing consecutive games on a road trip. Yet, we do not have enough information to profitably wager on this information.

There is a Pro System that goes one step further in the analysis and has been profitable for eight consecutive seasons. Over that time frame this Pro System has gone 151-94 (61.6%) ATS, +51.7 units.

You can get the full system by joining Bet Labs. It has never been easier.

Get game matches for this system

 

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