Trend of the Week: Alabama vs. LSU

Trend of the Week: Alabama vs. LSU

Context

College GameDay will be in Baton Rouge for Alabama-LSU. This isn’t the SEC title game but it sure feels like it given the history between these two programs.

The Tide are fresh off a bye and winners of 20 consecutive games including a 30-16 home victory over LSU last season. The Tigers have been rolling (won three straight) since firing Les Miles and naming Ed Orgeron interim coach.

Bama has been favored by double-digits in every game this season. The Tide were 10 points favorites at Ole Miss earlier in the season and that was their lowest spread all year. However, Alabama is just 7.5 point favorites in Death Valley.

This isn’t the same LSU team we saw at the beginning of the season and the spread reflects the difference. Over the last three games, the Tigers have averaged 41.7 points and 536 yards of offense.

This plays into our Pro System that keys on high scoring teams in home conference games.

Trend

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Bet the high scoring team in a home conference games.

Since 2005, betting teams in these situations have been highly profitable going 182-137 (57.1%) ATS, +36.4 units.

Our Pick

A month ago this looked like a blowout but now LSU is firing on all cylinders. Alabama is the favorite, and rightfully so, but LSU is the side to bet.

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