Top Performing NFL Systems

Top Performing NFL Systems

There are 31 days, 6 hours, 58 minutes and 27 seconds (depending on when you read this) left until kickoff of the first NFL game of the season.

That means it is time to review the most profitable NFL betting systems. Here is three of the top performing Pro Systems, plus a current pick for Week 1 that matches.

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Road Dog, Low Total After Bad Season

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This is one of the most profitable Pro Systems of all-time, a true contrarian system that goes against public perception. Square bettors do not want to back a road underdog coming off a bad season. That is a mistake, since 2004 this system is up 67.13 units.

Current Pick: Bears (+6) at Texans

Last year, the Bears finished last in the NFC North while the Texans won the AFC South for the first time since 2012. Despite the division crown there isn’t much separating these two teams. In fact, Houston ranks 18th in DVOA and Chicago 19th.

Getting 2 Points from Opener in Primetime

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What are you doing on Thursday night, Sunday night and Monday night? Watching football of course, just like everyone else in America. These primetime games are the most watched and most bet games. This system takes advantage of primetime games that have seen the line move in favor of a team by at least 2 points. This is a clear indication that the public has overreacted to a piece of news, possibly an injury or a suspension.

This Pro System has seven straight winning seasons and is 50-28 against-the-spread in that time returning +19.45 units.

Current Pick: Patriots (+5.5) at Cardinals

With the news of Tom Brady’s suspension the line in this game moved from a pick’em to Cardinals -5.5. The Patriots are rarely underdogs and it is a bad idea to bet against Bill Belichick: 22-9 against-the-spread as an underdog (+12.48 units).

Week 1 Non-Playoff Team vs. Playoff Team

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It is easy to be biased by recent history, especially early in the season. This is another system that goes against the grain. Backing a non-playoff team in a divisional matchup against a team that made the playoffs last year in Week 1 has been very successful.

This Pro System is 23-7 against-the-spread since 2005, +14.3 units.

Current Pick: Chargers (+4) at Chiefs

San Diego is coming off a disappointing 4-12 season but the Chargers are strong candidates for positive regression. The team had a negative turnover differential, a losing record in close games and underperformed their Pythagorean expectations by nearly two full wins (the most in the NFL). The public just sees a four-win team, we know better.


©2016 Sports Insights Inc.

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