Which player will win the NFL MVP award in 2017? Tom Brady is the 4/1 favorite. The Patriots star finished second in voting last year while only playing 12 games. Set for a full 16 game campaign this fall the future Hall of Fame quarterback is a clear front runner.
Behind Brady is a slew of quarterbacks including Aaron Rodgers (7/1), Derek Carr (9/1), Dak Prescott (12/1), Ben Roethlisberger (12/1), Russell Wilson (12/1) and reigning MVP Matt Ryan (16/1). This isn’t too surprising as nine of the last ten winners have all been gun slingers.
Ezekiel Elliott (20/1) is the first non-quarterback listed. The Cowboys running back finished third in the voting last year. Other backs with odds include David Johnson (33/1), Adrian Peterson (50/1) and longshots Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy and DeMarco Murray at 100/1.
Antonio Brown (50/1 and Julio Jones (50/1) are the most likely receivers to win. Rob Gronkowski (66/1) is the only tight end with odds. Think a defensive player could win? J.J. Watt (66/1) and Von Miller (100/1) are the only non-offensive players with odds. Don’t get cute with your MVP bets. The last player that wasn’t a quarterback or running back to win the award was Lawrence Taylor in 1986.
Only projected starting quarterbacks without MVP odds are Tyrod Taylor (Bills), Josh McCown (Jets), Cody Kessler (Browns), Tom Savage (Texans), Trevor Siemian (Broncos), Mike Glennon (Bears), Jared Goff (Rams) and Brian Hoyer (49ers).
Two bets not to place are Sam Bradford and Carson Palmer 50/1. Accuracy is nice but it won’t win you an MVP, sorry Bradford. Palmer was in the MVP conversation in 2015 (35 TDs, 11 INTs) but ranked 21st in Football Outsider’s DYAR. Plus, the Cardinals and Vikings are 39.6% and 38.2% likely to make the playoffs respectively. Only twice in the history of the award has the MVP been given to a player that didn’t led their team to the postseason.
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Players with Value
Philip Rivers (50/1): Rivers managed to finish in the top five in passing yards (4,386) and touchdowns (33) last year despite nearly all of his receivers and running backs spending time on the injury report. If the Chargers can stay healthy they can compete for the AFC West title.
Cam Newton (25/1): Injuries limited Cam last year but we know he can put up the stats to win the award like he did in 2015. The Panthers are primed for a worst-to-first run in the division and voters like certain players: five of the previous nine winners had won the award before.
2017 NFL MVP Odds (Bovada.lv)
|Odell Beckham Jr.||Giants||66/1|