The Patriots are the favorites to win the Super Bowl and Tom Brady is expected to take home his third MVP, so it should come as no surprise that the future Hall of Fame quarterback is the favorite to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns this fall.

The Pats quarterback threw 28 touchdowns in 12 games last year, that would have put him on pace for 37 touchdowns if he played a full 16 games. Brady has led the league in passing touchdowns three times (2015, 2010, 2002). He has tossed 50 touchdowns in a season before so at 4/1 odds he is a reasonable favorite.

Last year’s touchdown champion was Aaron Rodgers. The Packers gunslinger found his receivers in the end zone 40 times. Both BetOnline and Bovada agree he is the second favorite behind Brady.

After Brady and Rodgers, it’s Drew Brees (6/1) and Matt Ryan (7/1) who finished third and second respectively in passing touchdowns in 2016.

The one quarterback the bookmakers disagree on is Derek Carr. The Raiders signal caller missed the end of last year with a broken leg. If you believe Carr will make a full recovery, Oakland expects him to after handing out a $125 million contract, you can get 20/1 odds at BetOnline, only 12/1 at Bovada.

A potential value bet is Philip Rivers. Consensus projections have him throwing for 31 touchdowns, Rodgers is the projected leader at 35 touchdowns. Not much of a difference for far better odds.


Week 1: Chargers at Broncos

This Pro System is 56% ATS, +64.6 units since 2005

Which side should you bet?


Who will lead the NFL in passing yards?

PlayerTeamBetOnlineBovada
Tom BradyPatriots17/44/1
Aaron RodgersPackers9/217/4
Drew BreesSaints6/16/1
Matt RyanFalcons7/17/1
Derek CarrRaiders20/112/1
Andrew LuckColts9/112/1
Philip RiversChargers12/112/1
Ben RoethlisbergerSteelers12/112/1
Eli ManningGiants20/116/1
Jameis WinstonBuccaneers20/118/1
Kirk CousinsRedskins40/133/1
Marcus MariotaTitans33/133/1
Carson PalmerCardinals33/133/1
Matthew StaffordLions40/133/1
Russell WilsonSeahawks33/133/1
Andy DaltonBengals50/140/1
Dak PrescottCowboys50/140/1
Ryan TannehillDolphins40/150/1
FieldAny other QB16/116/1